Bloomberg survey: Gold bullish sentiment is running high next week, setting a record for the longest bull run in nearly two years

According to the latest survey released by Bloomberg on Friday (February 10), gold traders and analysts are bullish on the price of gold next week as the price of gold climbs to a three-week high.

    Of the 18 gold traders and analysts surveyed, 12 were bullish (66%), three were bearish (17%), and three were flat (17%).

    Respondents to the Bloomberg survey were bullish for the seventh consecutive week, setting a record for the longest consecutive bull run since April 2015.

    International spot gold rose by $13.60 in the week of February 10, an increase of 1.11%, marking the second consecutive week of gains, closing at $1233.40/ounce, with a maximum of $1244.67/ounce and a minimum of $1218.90/ounce.

    Gold prices have rallied 6.8% this year, as a weaker dollar and concerns over Trump's presidency have fueled demand for safe havens, while physical purchases ahead of the Lunar New Year have pushed up prices.

    On top of its first annual gain since 2012, gold broke above its 100-day moving average, which some traders and analysts took as a sign that prices could rise further.

    They cited technical support, the lack of progress on US President Donald Trump's economic reform promises, and political uncertainty in other regions as factors that have supported gold prices.

    "The market is in a long and steady upward trend and unlike copper and crude oil, hedge funds are not overbuying gold," Bill O'Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors in New Jersey, said in an email, adding that worries about the European elections, particularly in France, were also supporting gold prices.

    Citi analysts Ed Morse and Aakash Doshi, among others, said in a report on February 10 that in the so-called "fat tail" scenario, if political risk in Europe increases, the price of gold could rise. Citi forecasts a 25% chance of gold prices hitting $1,300.

    The report also pointed out that, despite this, the basic expectation remains that gold prices will continue to trend downward in the second quarter, influenced by rising U.S. interest rates and a strengthening dollar.

    Jeffrey Nichols, a US precious metals investment adviser and senior economic adviser at Rosland Capital, said he hoped to see gold break through the resistance range of $1,230-1,250 an ounce in "recent days" to attract bulls.

    Mr. Nichols said: "The catalyst next week could be even more damaging to trust, with a Trump administration and the Fed not raising interest rates soon, what may be more important is the transfer of assets, and a large number of speculative and hedge funds will be alarmed by the stock market and enter through gold ETFs. These momentum investors are self-reinforcing and will exit the stock market and enter gold."

    Gold prices stabilized on Friday, but remained below the three-month highs hit this week, as U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields retreated from their highs after U.S. President Donald Trump promised major tax reform, sending the dollar and Treasury yields higher.

    The dollar trimmed gains against a basket of major currencies after briefly jumping on Trump's promise to announce a major tax reform plan within weeks.

    Hopes of business-friendly tax cuts also spurred U.S. stocks to record highs for a second straight day.

    Jonathan Butler, analyst at Mitsubishi, said: "It's clear that the dollar has returned to strength over the past few days, and that has an impact on gold as well. Gold's rise above $1,220 an ounce is very convincing, but it failed to break through the $1,249- $1,250 level, which is a sign of continued gold gains this year. The tail turn and profit-taking by investors is somewhat disappointing."

    Among other precious metals, spot silver ended the week up 2.46% at $17.93 an ounce, rising to $18.00 an ounce, the highest since November 11.

    Palladium rose 4.59% to $781.20 an ounce, hitting an intraday high of $786.40 an ounce since January 25.

    Platinum rose 0.56% to $1,007.25 an ounce.