Bullish sentiment for gold surged next week and set the longest bullish streak in nearly two years, according to a bloomberg survey

2019-01-19 2216Secondary browse

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Gold traders and analysts are bullish on the gold price next week as it climbs to a three-week high, according to the latest bloomberg survey released on Friday (feb 10).

Of the 18 gold traders and analysts surveyed, 12 were bullish (66 per cent), three were bearish (17 per cent) and three were even (17 per cent).

Respondents to the bloomberg survey were bullish for a seventh straight week, the longest streak since April 2015.

International spot gold rose $13.60, or 1.11%, for the week ended Feb. 10, its second straight weekly gain, to $1233.40 an ounce, up $1244.67 and down $1218.90.

Gold prices have risen 6.8 per cent this year as safe-haven demand has been fuelled by a weaker dollar and concerns over the trump presidency, while physical purchases ahead of the lunar New Year have pushed prices higher.

On top of its first annual gain since 2012, gold broke above its 100-day moving average, which some traders and analysts took as a sign that prices could rise further.

They cited technical support, a lack of progress on U.S. President Donald trump's economic reform promises and political uncertainty in some other regions as supporting gold prices.

"The market is on a long-term, steady uptrend, and unlike copper and crude oil, hedge funds are not overbought in gold," Bill O 'neill, partner at Logic Advisors in New Jersey, said in an email. Gold was also supported by concerns about European elections, particularly in France, he said.

In a Feb. 10 report, Citi analysts Ed Morse and Aakash Doshi, among others, said gold could rise if political risk in Europe intensifies in the so-called 'fat tail' scenario. Citi sees a 25% chance of gold hitting $1,300.

Still, the underlying expectation is that gold prices will continue to decline into the second quarter, driven by higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar, the report said.

Jeffrey Nichols, U.S. precious metals adviser and Rosland Capital senior economic adviser, said he would like to see gold break out of its resistance range of $1230 to $1250 an ounce "in the last few days" to attract bulls to the market.

Nichols notes: "the catalyst for next week could be even more dicey, with the trump administration and the fed not raising interest rates soon, and perhaps even more important, with asset shifts, a lot of speculative and hedge funds will be wary of the stock market and enter the market through gold etfs. These momentum investors are self-reinforcing and they will exit the stock market and go into gold.

Gold prices steadied on Friday but remained below the three-month highs hit this week as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields retreated from their highs after President Donald trump's promise of major tax changes sent them jumping.

The dollar pared gains against a basket of major currencies after initially jumping on trump's promise to announce major tax changes within weeks.

Hopes of a business-friendly tax cut also spurred U.S. stocks to a second straight day of record highs.